Good news for food vendors, bad one for govt.? World calories demand to increase by 80%


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Researchers from the University of Gottingen, Germany, say there is a trend showing increasing individual Body Mass Index (BMI) which automatically will lead to increase in calories-intake to meet body energy need.

More, the research says with the United Nations (UN) projecting global population to rise from 7 billion to 11 billion within the next century, 60% of the increase in food demand will come from population escalation while the other 18% will be due to enlarged body seize of future humankind. In sum, the demand for food will experience a sharp increase of around 80% before the end of next century.

One of the author of the research work, Lutz Depenbusch, explains that “The increase in the average daily required energy rises by 253 kcal per person between 2010 and 2100 in our estimations, assuming a rising BMI and height,”

“On a global scale, we calculate that the effect of the BMI and height increases in our model would lead to additional calorie requirements that match the 2010 requirements of India and Nigeria combined”, he adds.

Government all around the world may have to start thinking about how to feed a burgeoning population made up of people who will demand almost twice the present calories intake to fuel a demanding body mass.

Although it is expected that developed nation will find a way to cater for their citizens, the research reveals that sub-Saharan nations may find it challenging to cope. This is due to poor planning at the top levels of government; unfavourable weather conditions, and low standards of mechanized farming.

However, the findings that people will eat more should serve as good news for food vendors and retailers.

While large retailers such as Spar and Shoprite have stepped up their food services, street food and top class restaurants are also popping up around major cities such as Lagos. These are realities that mirror the new research. Hence, location, innovation, packaging, convenience and pricing will play key roles in determining market shares among players.

Going by a report by PR Newswire in August, the global food service market stood at $3.4 trillion as at 2018. By 2024 it will top $4 trillion. That is just a trillion shy of the size of one of the largest global industries, the tech industry – one that is expected to reach $5 trillion in 2020.

These insights should serve as added incentives for people intending to go into the food industry.

Toyin Afilaka
Toyin Afilaka
Toyin Afilaka writes with simplicity and insight. He aims to enrich the Nigerian small business landscape. Through Hustle24 he connects entrepreneurs with information about new policies, enterprise solutions and opportunities that will aid their 'hustle'. He has written extensively for CobraReview, a product review portal, and served as a lead project manager for MarketingMix where he consulted as PR consultant for MTN Project Fame and Business Next Titan etc.


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